On a morning, I usually check the exchanges against Oddschecker for any out of price horses. Now 9 times out of 10, these are going to be on long-shots. For example, today I found a BACK bet of 15 and to LAY 13.5 on Betfair. Even taking into account the basic 5% comission rate this still is a £1.49 profit regardless of outcome. However, where this becomes interesting is that most major UK books offer a Best Odds Guarantee, so basically if the odds on the horse drift out during the day, to say a 19/1 (20), the winnings will be paid out at this amount. Leaving a profit of £126.50!
Yes, you could say long-shots rarely win, however they are more common than you think and my spreadsheet shows this, I have had some crazy wins of over £300+ from Odds drifting and being paid out at Best Odds Guaranteed.
Time for a coffee
Betting Traderx
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